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How should America respond to changing geopolitical realities in the Middle East? By remembering that a rabid animal will stop biting itself to bite you.
Revolutionary events in the middle kingdom are a continuation of tribal and religious wars going back over two thousand years. No amount of touchy-feely posturing, amateurish foreign policy, or misapplication of our military will change the reality of much danger and little opportunity.
The Obama administration had solid and timely intelligence warnings. What was missing was the experience to turn that information into a coherent response strategy. Flip-flop diplomacy demonstrated, once again, the difference in community organization and leadership. Oval office condemnations of Mubarak and Gadhafi rang hollow in the face of fresh Presidential handshakes with the same players.
Prior history and current realities predetermine future probabilities. Libya risks protracted civil war. In Egypt, where political parties have been outlawed for years, power will likely fall to one of only two organized groups – the military or the Muslim Brotherhood. Neither have remote interest in democracy or anything else from America but America’s money.
We are about to receive another lesson in the similarities between despotism, socialism, and sectism. All are based on the illusionary promise of security and reward in exchange for devotion and sacrifice. Liberty and personal responsibility are threats to these dysfunctional social orders. Each represents a change of channels, not programming.
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